现在安全了么？
简单说来，没有。美国和其他地区还有很多金融机构会瓦解。很多雇员会失业。很多情况下，消费者会彻底减少花销。然后政府要开始策划夸夸其谈的大话来保证财经市场的景气了。
但老实说来，在接下来的两三年中，经济和金融业的前景会相当光明。生活开销和消费的长期膨胀从较多产部门吸收资源。如果企业，投资者和雇员没有完全被吓倒，那么与其说这次危机是难以缓解的危机，不如说它会发展成成一次契机。
就目前而言，这次危机会更深化。有多深呢？根本问题是金融机构和家庭的过度借贷大大增加了他们在过去十年中的债务。除非他们减少债务，否则混乱局面还是不会终止。
粗略计算表明，依照以往的情况来看家庭借贷已经超出了2到3万亿美元。其中大部分超支债务都用在了居家，汽车和其他消费品上了。因为很多贷款的人都没有足够多的收入，这一部分债务就不指望收回了。正是这些高悬的坏帐让贝尔斯登，雷曼兄弟（ LEH. ）和美国国际集团损失惨重。在这次危机过去之前，类似债务很可能还要拖垮其他几家大型金融机构。
金融部门购销这些坏账只能减轻债务给家庭带来的压力，而不会消除。为了偿清剩下的那些超额债务，美国消费者将不得不勒紧裤带。这意味着消费额会减少，从而导致大面积的裁员。
究竟何来的光明前景呢？自2000以来，美国的经济状况就不正常。资金流入到居家项目和消费品中去了，而商业和基础设施投资短缺招认。换句话说，资金运转较快的项目反而没有被放在首位。
现在，着重点可能会有所改变。企业和国家以及地方政府仍有借贷的空间，因为他们没有像家庭和金融机构那样过度利用借贷。不得不退居二线的居家费用和消费会将更多的资源让给未来真正需要的方面，例如教育投资，研究和开发。
这次危机对于整个国家而言是一次重估优先次序的良机。比起用在生活和消费上，我们更应该把重点放在有更大长期回报的投资和创新上。
当然，这种乐观的想法是要取决于政府是否有意愿并且有能力防止金融系统完全瓦解。至少有个个好消息：经通货膨胀调整后，联邦政府在过去十年中没有增加多少债务，因此它有足够的借款能力。美联储也留有余力。
在许多方面，这次危机就像森林火灾。如果任其发展，大火可以摧毁数千英亩的土地。但它也可以为新一轮的生长清除旧草。运气好的话，我们的厄运到此为止。
A Chance to Find Balance
Business Week
Are we safe yet? In the short term, no. More financial institutions will collapse, in the U.S. and elsewhere. Many workers will lose their jobs. Consumers will have to cut back on their spending, in some cases deeply. And the government is going to have to lay out big bucks to keep the economy and financial markets afloat.
But for the medium term -- say, two or three years down the road -- economic and financial prospects look considerably brighter. The long housing and consumption booms sucked resources out of more productive sectors. If companies, investors, and workers don't get completely spooked, this crisis can evolve into an opportunity rather than an unmitigated disaster.
For now the current crisis is going to get deeper. How deep? The underlying problem is over-borrowing by financial institutions and households, which have greatly increased their debt over the past 10 years. So the turmoil won't end until these sectors pare down their debt.
A rough calculation suggests that households have borrowed $2 trillion to $3 trillion more than they should have, based on historical patterns. Much of that excess debt -- taken for homes, cars, other consumer goods -- will not be paid back, because many borrowers don't have enough income. This overhang of bad debt is what brought down Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers (LEH.), and AIG, and it's likely to hit several other big financial institutions before the crisis is over.
As bad loans get written off by the financial sector, the debt burden on households is lessened but not eliminated. American consumers will have to tighten their belts to pay back whatever excess debt is left. That means reductions in consumer spending, leading to widespread job cuts.
So where's the bright spot? The U.S. has had a distorted economy since 2000. Money flowed into housing and consumer goods, while business and infrastructure investment got short shrift. In other words, productive assets had to go to the back of the line.
Now that emphasis could change. Businesses and state and local governments still have room to borrow because they didn't leverage up as much as households and financial institutions did. The resulting retreat in housing and consumption will leave more resources to devote to building real wealth for the future, including spending on education and research and development.
This crisis could become a chance to reevaluate our priorities as a country. Rather than stressing homeownership and consumption, we should focus on investment and innovation, which have a bigger long-term payoff.
This upbeat view, of course, depends on whether the government has the will and the ability to keep the financial system from collapsing completely. One piece of good news: Adjusted for inflation, the federal government did not add much debt over the past decade, so it has plenty of borrowing power. The Federal Reserve, too, still has ammo left.
In many ways this crisis is like a forest fire. If left unchecked, a fire can devastate thousands of acres. But it can also clear out old brush and set the stage for a new round of growth. With any luck, that's where we will end up.
